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Interesting Pythagorean Theorum Calculations Up To June 16

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So I got bored with my spreadsheet and started to calculate "expected wins" based on the runs scored and runs against for each team. The pythagorean theorum for baseball is winning percentage is runs for squared, divided by runs for squared plus runs against squared. It does a good job of being pretty accurate.

The last five columns are the important ones. Wins, losses, expected wins based on pythagorean, expected losses, and the difference between the number of wins you actually got and the number of wins you should have based on pythagorean.

If the last column is positive, you have overperformed by that many wins. If it's negative, you have underperformed by that many wins.

It's just for fun and doesn't mean anything. But interesting.


Jenkins
Matt Stairs Team W L Pct GB RF RA Mgn Mgc Win Loss X-Win X-Loss Difference
22 Wannabees 38 29 0.567 - 282 255 27 93 38 29 36.9 30.1 1.1
22 Markham Squeeze 38 32 0.543 1 1/2 243 262 -19 96 38 32 32.4 37.6 5.6
22 Trailer Parkes Trash 35 32 0.522 3 286 261 25 99 35 32 36.6 30.4 -1.6
22 LaVerne Bugeaters 29 40 0.42 10 269 306 -37 105 29 40 30.1 38.9 -1.1
22 Brantford Babkas 24 44 0.353 14 1/2 222 284 -62 110 24 44 25.8 42.2 -1.8

Tip O'Neill
22 OMG Its Ichiro 40 27 0.597 - 262 225 37 96 40 27 38.6 28.4 1.4
22 Rawken Hawks 41 28 0.594 - 332 277 55 95 41 28 40.7 28.3 0.3
22 Tijuana Psychos 39 27 0.591 01-Feb 291 242 49 97 39 27 39.0 27.0 0.0
22 Arlie Lathams 29 39 0.426 11 1/2 239 294 -55 107 29 39 27.1 40.9 1.9
22 The Bananas 24 45 0.348 17 231 315 -84 112 24 45 24.1 44.9 -0.1

Walker
Ron Taylor
22 Sedona Bombs 50 18 0.735 - 413 213 200 75 50 18 53.7 14.3 -3.7
22 Belsize Stros 29 38 0.433 20 1/2 304 314 -10 116 29 38 32.4 34.6 -3.4
22 King's Court 25 41 0.379 24 294 352 -58 120 25 41 27.1 38.9 -2.1
22 Bumbles 21 47 0.309 29 261 376 -115 124 21 47 22.1 45.9 -1.1
22 Chico's Bail Bonds 20 47 0.299 230 323 -93 125 20 47 22.5 44.5 -2.5

George Selkirk
22 Bleeding Ulcers 44 22 0.667 - 301 209 92 94 44 22 44.5 21.5 -0.5
22 That Ball Club 45 25 0.643 1 336 257 79 96 45 25 44.2 25.8 0.8
22 Arizona Brawlers 38 29 0.567 6 1/2 288 243 45 103 38 29 39.1 27.9 -1.1
22 Maximum Gaetti 36 29 0.554 7 1/2 279 278 1 105 36 29 32.6 32.4 3.4
22 755 Forever 32 38 0.457 14 273 350 -77 109 32 38 26.5 43.5 5.5


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Woah, if I read that correctly... the Sedona Bombs are UNDERPERFORMING!?

We are all in very deep trouble then.

belsize stros wrote:So I got bored with my spreadsheet and started to calculate "expected wins" based on the runs scored and runs against for each team.  The pythagorean theorum for baseball is winning percentage is runs for squared, divided by runs for squared plus runs against squared.  It does a good job of being pretty accurate.  

The last five columns are the important ones.  Wins, losses, expected wins based on pythagorean, expected losses, and the difference between the number of wins you actually got and the number of wins you should have based on pythagorean.

If the last column is positive, you have overperformed by that many wins.  If it's negative, you have underperformed by that many wins.

It's just for fun and doesn't mean anything.  But interesting.


Jenkins
Matt Stairs Team         W L Pct GB        RF RA Mgn Mgc Win Loss X-Win X-Loss Difference
22 Wannabees        38 29 0.567 -        282 255 27 93 38 29 36.9 30.1 1.1
22 Markham Squeeze 38 32 0.543 1 1/2 243 262 -19 96 38 32 32.4 37.6 5.6
22 Trailer Parkes Trash 35 32 0.522 3 286 261 25 99 35 32 36.6 30.4 -1.6
22 LaVerne Bugeaters 29 40 0.42 10 269 306 -37 105 29 40 30.1 38.9 -1.1
22 Brantford Babkas 24 44 0.353 14 1/2 222 284 -62 110 24 44 25.8 42.2 -1.8

Tip O'Neill
22 OMG Its Ichiro 40 27 0.597 -        262 225 37 96 40 27 38.6 28.4 1.4
22 Rawken Hawks 41 28 0.594 -        332 277 55 95 41 28 40.7 28.3 0.3
22 Tijuana Psychos 39 27 0.591 01-Feb 291 242 49 97 39 27 39.0 27.0 0.0
22 Arlie Lathams 29 39 0.426 11 1/2 239 294 -55 107 29 39 27.1 40.9 1.9
22 The Bananas 24 45 0.348 17        231 315 -84 112 24 45 24.1 44.9 -0.1

Walker
Ron Taylor
22 Sedona Bombs 50 18 0.735 -        413 213 200 75 50 18 53.7 14.3 -3.7
22 Belsize Stros 29 38 0.433 20 1/2 304 314 -10 116 29 38 32.4 34.6 -3.4
22 King's Court 25 41 0.379 24        294 352 -58 120 25 41 27.1 38.9 -2.1
22 Bumbles 21 47 0.309 29                261 376 -115 124 21 47 22.1 45.9 -1.1
22 Chico's Bail Bonds 20 47 0.299 230 323 -93 125 20 47 22.5 44.5 -2.5

George Selkirk
22 Bleeding Ulcers 44 22 0.667 -        301 209 92 94 44 22 44.5 21.5 -0.5
22 That Ball Club 45 25 0.643 1        336 257 79 96 45 25 44.2 25.8 0.8
22 Arizona Brawlers 38 29 0.567 6 1/2        288 243 45 103 38 29 39.1 27.9 -1.1
22 Maximum Gaetti 36 29 0.554 7 1/2        279 278 1 105 36 29 32.6 32.4 3.4
22 755 Forever 32 38 0.457 14        273 350 -77 109 32 38 26.5 43.5 5.5


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It makes sense that Bill would be minus (under perform) since you only need to be +1 run to win a game. So if you are hammering teams then a lot of those runs won't be directly contributing to wins...

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